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Effects of climate change on the vegetation range of Bromus tomentellus Boiss in Alborz Rangeland habitats, Mazandaran province
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Hassan Ghelichnia *   , Morteza Khodagholi2 |
Associate Professor, Forest and Rangeland Research Department, Agriculture and natural resources reseach center of Mazandaran , ms_ghelichh@yahoo.com
2- Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands |
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Abstract: (1007 Views) |
Climate change significantly impacts plant distribution, making it essential to model and predict shifts in plant species habitats. Therefore, determining the prediction of the habitat of plant species using modeling methods in this direction can help in the management and using of ecosystems. This study was conducted with the aim of creating a forecast map of Bromus tomentellus habitat based on climate prediction model in Alborz rangeland habitats of Mazandaran province. First, A database of climatic variables was formed using 15 synoptic stations- night temperature, daily temperature, and the average temperature, and 19 climatic variables were calculated. Also, using a digital evaluation model with an accuracy of 30 meters, three physiographic variables (slope, direction, height) were prepared. Then, presence and absence points of B. tomentellus were identified using new ecological maps and field visits. Logistic regression was employed to model the species' growth behavior in the Alborz rangeland habitats, and the corresponding equations were calculated in the current conditions. Using current equations and placement of data extracted from the Worldclime database, the future distribution map of B. tomentellus was created for 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The results showed that B. tomentellus species will migrate to higher altitudes by 200 meters under RCP4.5 and 300 meters under RCP8.5 scenarios. Also, Suitable habitat area for B. tomentellus is projected to decrease from 43.9% to 35.3% under RCP4.5 and 18.7% under RCP8.5 by 2050.
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Article number: 15 |
| Keywords: Climate change, Logistic regression, Climate scenario, Bromus tomentellus Boisss |
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Full-Text [PDF 1020 kb]
(208 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2024/01/3 | Accepted: 2024/07/7 | Published: 2024/10/7
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