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PEC 2021, 8(17): 219-235 Back to browse issues page
Modeling the current and future potential distribution of Fritillaria imperialis under climate change scenarios and using three general circulation models in Iran
Ali Asghar Naghipour borj *, Mohammadreza Ashrafzadeh, Maryam Haidarian
, aa.naghipour@sku.ac.ir
Abstract:   (508 Views)
Climate change may make challenges to the conservation of plant species such as the Fritillaria imperialis that have narrow geographical distribution. In this study, the modeling suitable habitats of F. imperialis in Iran was done in the current condition and under climate change (2050). In so doing, 78 species presence data along with 12 environmental variables including bioclimatic, physiographic and land cover/land use variables were used. The ensemble modelling consisting of seven Species Distribution Models (SDMs) was coupled with three general circulation models and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario. Our findings showed that estimated potential habitats of the species cover about 7.69% of the study area while approximately 9.08% of these suitable areas were covered by conservation areas. Due to climate change, the least and most decline of suitable habitats 46.1% to 77.37% might occur in 2050 respectively. Minimum temperature of the coldest month, elevation, and annual precipitation, had the greatest effects on the species’ distribution in the study area. In keeping with the results, F. imperialis was predicted to shift toward higher elevation under climate change. The accuracy of the maps was assessed and functioning of all models was acceptable (AUC> 0.87 and TSS> 0.75). The suitable habitat identified could be considered for the adoption of management and conservation approaches, including re-introduction and the establishment of new protected areas in order to protect F. imperialis against the expected climate change impacts.
Keywords: Ensemble modeling, Habitat suitability, Species distribution modeling, Bioclimatic variables
Full-Text [PDF 2136 kb]   (120 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2020/03/3 | Accepted: 2020/07/6 | Published: 2021/03/12
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Naghipour borj A A, Ashrafzadeh M, Haidarian M. Modeling the current and future potential distribution of Fritillaria imperialis under climate change scenarios and using three general circulation models in Iran. PEC. 2021; 8 (17) :219-235
URL: http://pec.gonbad.ac.ir/article-1-671-en.html


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Volume 8, Issue 17 (2-2021) Back to browse issues page
مجله حفاظت زیست بوم گیاهان Journal of Plant Ecosystem Conservation
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